CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-08-16T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15746/-1
CME Note: The source is a large prominence eruption near S30E25 in SDO imagery, occurring around 2020-08-16T17:01Z; the eruption is observed in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304Å. A B1.2 flare measured by GOES-Primary that starts at 2020-08-16T17:01Z and peaks at 2020-08-16T17:26Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-08-20T05:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note: 
% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 510.0 km/s 
u_r = 565.29 km/s
Acceleration:      -0.439358
Duration in seconds:        300288.16
Duration in days:        3.4755574
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   -0.44 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  433.4 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/08/2020 Time: 05:48 UT
Lead Time: 45.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2020-08-18T08:00Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy